Keon Coleman

The downfield work is what gives Keon Coleman any case at all, and through five weeks of 2026 it looks legitimate. His average depth of target is 14.2 yards, WR17 among the 85 receivers with at least 15 targets, and he has not dropped one of his 18 targets. Nine points a game also beats the 7.6 we projected before the season, so the start has not hurt him against the 91 points we had on him for the full year.

The problem is the same one we flagged all preseason, and the new coaching staff has not fixed it. Buffalo lists him third at receiver behind DJ Moore and Khalil Shakir, and last year Shakir outdrew him in targets 21% to 16%. The crowding is what costs him: receivers in his spot dropped 0.9 points a game when their team's targets were this divided, and Coleman himself lived it, sliding from a 17% target share in weeks 1 through 4 of 2025 to 10% in weeks 13 through 18. His 23.9% share of his team's touchdown points carried a similar 0.9-point cost for players in his spot. That is the gap between holding him and relying on him weekly.

He has played every week this season, which matters given we only expected 12 games from him, and the 23.6 in week 4 of 2026 showed the ceiling. But he scored under the weekly median receiver in three of five weeks, and his bye arrives in week 7 of 2026. We would hold him over a waiver add, not start him, and we need to see his target share climb past Shakir's before we bench a receiver for him.