Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Through week 6 of 2026 he is at 6.4 points a game against the 9.7 pace we set for him before the season, and the shape of the season is the worry more than the total. Week 1 gave him 1.4 points and week 5 gave 4.3, with one spike, the 12.3 in week 4 of 2026, and a modest 9.8 in week 6. One good week out of six is not a trend yet.
The deeper issue is where his targets went. His share fell from 24.4% in 2024 to 16.7% in 2025, and in that Seattle room Smith-Njigba took 36% and Kupp 16%, 52% between them. He is listed second among the WRs, but the pecking order behind Smith-Njigba is crowded. And the scoring paths are nearly closed: zero of his team's 27 carries and targets inside the ten through weeks 1 to 5 of 2026, and 6% of red-zone carries and targets in his games. Deep shots, 10.9 yards a target, can carry a week, but they carry one week, not a season.
Our projection of 136 points for him, WR54 on our board, was built on him getting a bigger slice of the passing game than he got last season, when he ran at about the same 128 points a season as the receivers drafted around him. So far the volume has moved the other way. We would hold him in deeper formats and keep him benched in shallow ones, waiting for a real uptick in targets before trusting the speed into any lineup.