DeVonta Smith

Weeks 4 and 5 of 2026 are the weeks he missed, and the injury report has carried no designation since before week 6 of 2026, so the return looks live. Before the season we expected 15 games, and the preseason pace was 16.5 points a game on our 248-point projection. He is at 16.2 a game over the three weeks he did play, so the rate is fine. What we need is the games.

The reason we still like him is the downfield role. He is pulling in 48% of Philadelphia's air yards in his games this season, third among 64 receivers with at least 20 carries and targets, one spot behind Carnell Tate. Last year his 32.1% air-yards share came with an average gain of 2.7 points a game the following season for receivers in that spot. The target share sits at 24%, and players with that profile gained 10.1 points a game the next year on average, net of seven factors. Snap share at 84.3% adds another 8 a game typically.

The real downside is the crowded room. With A.J. Brown at 30% and him at 24% in 2025, receivers in that squeeze lost 0.9 points a game the next season, and his red-zone share is only 8% of team red-zone carries and targets this year, 42nd among 64. His points also slid from 15.34 in 2024 to 11.87 in 2025. Hold him. The air-yard role is doing the work the room costs him.