Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
A guy taken 235th overall in 2024, listed second on the depth chart behind Chris Olave, is outproducing our 8.0-point preseason pace at 12.4 a game through week 5 of 2026. That's the headline. The usage backs it up more than the box score does: 13% of NO's red-zone carries and targets in his games, WR20 among 64 receivers with 20 or more touches, and 22% of the team's air yards. For a receiver we had at WR72, that's a bigger role than our 104-point projection counted on.
But look at how he's winning it. Two yards of separation from the nearest defender on 37 tracked targets, WR54 among the 57 receivers tracked that heavily. He's not beating coverage, he's collecting throws. And the week-to-week shape is exactly what you'd expect from that: 19.9 in week 1 of 2026, then 6.9, then 17.4, then 6.6. He cleared 15 points once in nine games last season, so the spikes are rare and the lows are low.
The structural worry is real too. Olave and Juwan Johnson combined for 47% of the targets in 2025, and receivers in Vele's spot have dropped 0.9 points a game from one season to the next on average. His own 2025 shows the ceiling of this role: 9.4% target share, WR106 among 239 qualifying receivers, four red-zone touches all year.
So he's worth holding as depth while the volume lasts. Roster him through the week 8 of 2026 bye, and if the target share slides back toward that 9.4% number, let him go and use the spot on a player with a clearer path.