Our read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
Five games in and the ledger reads 5.5 points a game on 20 targets. That is behind what we drew up before the season, our 100-point projection over 14 expected games, which works out to 7.1 a game, so he is running about a point and a half short of that pace. Zero touchdowns through week 5 of 2026 does not help. Week 1 was a goose egg, week 3 and week 4 of 2026 were dinks, and the 14.4 in week 5 is the only week a manager could feel good about.
The shape behind the number is mixed, and the bad half matters more right now. His air yards share is 10% of PIT's air yards in his games, WR61 among the 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets, and his 2.2 yards of average separation puts him WR51 among the 57 receivers with 15 or more tracked targets. A rookie living that far down the field with that little room is not earning force-fed volume. The better sign is the red-zone work, 11% of the team's carries and targets there in his games, WR29 in that same group, plus a new play caller in Brian Angelichio who is still sorting out what he has. But the depth chart has him fourth among PIT receivers, behind Metcalf, Pittman and Roman Wilson, and that lane has not opened yet.
He should stay on your bench while you keep him on the roster. Hold him through his week 9 of 2026 bye and leave him out of your lineup until the targets and the air yards start moving his way. If that share climbs, the red-zone role is already waiting for it.