Tre Tucker

The production says backup, the role says something better. Five weeks in, he is scoring 10.4 a game, right where our preseason pace of 10.6 put him, and the week-to-week shape is the problem: 22.9 in week 2 of 2026, then 8.3, 8.4 and 7.5. That is what a deep-threat profile looks like when the shots do not connect. He is running routes on nearly every snap and pulling 32% of the team's air yards, third-most among the 64 receivers tracked, so the targets are coming from the right places.

The case for growth is the one we made before the season. His target share went from 13.7% in 2024 to 18.6% in 2025, and receivers who make that jump have added 3.3 points a game the following year. He also finished WR25 in touches among 240 receivers on a 94.9% snap share, the best at the position. New play caller Andrew Janocko is the wild card here, and that uncertainty is part of why drafters only moved him up about five picks before the season.

The downsides are stacking, though. Brock Bowers took 24% of the 2025 targets, and crowded rooms like this have cost 0.9 points a game. His red-zone share this year is 5%, just 2 of 42 carries and targets, and he scored once through five weeks. A team expected to win 5.5 games costs its top receivers 0.8. And the profile he is coming off, a 9.5 a game season like his, has docked players in his spot 1.2 points a game the next year on average. Our preseason number for him was 159 points, and that sits at WR47 for a reason. Hold him, start him only in bye-week jams, and wait for the deep balls to start hitting.