Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
5.2 points a game through week 6 of 2026 from a player we put at 201 points for the season, that is the gap, and it has not closed. He went 3.9 in week 6 of 2026 and has not cleared 10 points in any week yet. Thirteen catches on 28 targets, one touchdown, zero carries. Week 4 of 2026 was 1.4 points. The whole range bottoms out at 133 only when injuries cut the season short, and he has missed nothing, so the worry is not availability. The worry is that a 31-year-old in year nine has simply stopped converting what he is fed.
Because he is still fed. The red-zone share this season, 16% of DEN's red-zone carries and targets in his games (6 of 38), ranks eighth among 64 receivers with 20 or more carries and targets of their own, an upgrade on 2025, when his red-zone share of his own touches, 15.3%, ranked 66th among 223 qualifying receivers. He also sits 11th in his team's share inside the ten. The role is real. What is broken is the separation, 2.5 yards on average over 18 tracked targets in weeks 1, 3 and 4 of 2026, 42nd among 57 receivers, so defenders are closer to him at the catch than almost anyone tracked.
The case for patience rests on last season's 218 points at WR14 and a profile that has historically added points the following year for receivers with his target and snap shares. We do not see the conversion coming soon enough to act on. Bench him in week 7 of 2026 unless your alternative is worse, and if the low weeks keep coming through his week 10 bye, move on.