Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The zero at the goal line is the story: 0 of 32 team red-zone touches and 0 of 17 inside the ten through five weeks of 2026. Last season he had 15 red-zone touches and 7 inside the ten, both top-20 among qualifying receivers, and that scoring work is what made a 13.2 points a game season worth holding. With 28.0% of his points coming from touchdowns and a 1.1x touchdown share, both historically shaving about 0.7 to 0.9 points a game from players in his spot, a profile that leans on scoring is the wrong one to be carrying: his totals this season print 0 touchdowns across 7 catches and 19 targets.
It is not all broken. The 20.2% target share and 22.5% air-yards share both carry real gains for players in his spot, 7.2 and 2.7 points a game the following season, and 19 targets in four games says the passes are still coming. The 3.0 yards of separation on tracked targets ranked WR16, so the catching itself is not the problem. But the crowded target room, where Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey combined for 43% last season, historically costs 0.9 points a game, and Mike McDaniel's new play calling has not put him inside the ten once.
He sat out week 5 of 2026, his only missed week so far. Our preseason number was 163 points, 11.6 a game over 14 games, and he is at 4.5 with the week 7 of 2026 bye next and no injury designation. We would hold him through the bye on roster depth alone, but he needs red-zone touches back before he belongs in a lineup.