Adonai Mitchell

Three games gone from the 2026 slate already, with him sidelined in week 3 of 2026, week 4 of 2026 and week 5 of 2026, makes the 10.7-point average over his two games worth less than it looks, because the whole case needs him on the field for the rest of the schedule. He carries an O designation since before week 6 of 2026, and the bye in week 13 of 2026 is still ahead. Our preseason number of 107 points assumed 14 games, so every week he sits costs him a chunk of a range that already bottoms out near 81.

The talent signal is real, though. His average throw distance sits at 15.8 yards, top ten among the 85 receivers with at least 15 targets, and that kind of air-yards profile has lifted players in his spot 2.7 points a game from one season to the next. But the scoring has not arrived: 9 catches for 123 yards, no touchdowns, and 2 drops on his 15 targets. In 2025 he cleared 15 points just twice and touched the end zone once via those 8 red-zone touches, so the deep targets have to start converting.

The room works against him. Garrett Wilson took 34% of NYJ's targets last season and Mason Taylor 18%, and a crowded target room has shaved about 0.9 points a game from receivers in Mitchell's spot. With 5.5 expected team wins, his slot has also dropped 0.8 a game on average. He went 164.7 in drafts, we put him at 193 overall. If he is back in the lineup in week 6 of 2026 and hits on a deep shot early, keep him rolling. If he is still sitting out when week 9 of 2026 arrives, release him for a healthier receiver.