Brian Thomas Jr.

Five games, 17 targets, 5.1 points a game. That is what Brian Thomas Jr. has given through week 5 of 2026, and it is well short of the 11.7 a game we set for him before the season. Week 5 of 2026 was a zero. You are not sitting him on talent, you are sitting him on output, and so far the output says bench.

The longer worry is that last season was not a fluke. His points a game fell from 16.47 in 2024 to 9.91 in 2025, and his target share fell with it, 25.5% to 19.3%. Jakobi Meyers took 23% of JAX targets in 2025, so this has been a split room for a while, and a crowded one costs players in his spot 0.9 points a game on average. The red-zone profile does not bail him out either, 8.5% of his own touches inside the 20 last year, WR143 among 223 qualifying receivers.

The bounce case is not empty. His target share this year sits at 21.3%, up from where he finished 2025, and among players in his spot that kind of share has come with a 5-point a game rise the next season on our numbers. He is 23.9, entering year three, first among JAX receivers on our depth chart, and he has suited up every week of 2026 with no injury designation all season. We had him WR42, overall rank 100, and drafters took him at 73.6, so the gap between cost and projection was already thin. Our number for his whole 2026 was 164.

Our call: hold him through the week 7 of 2026 bye, but if week 6 of 2026 brings another single-digit week, he goes to your bench and stays there until the targets become catches.