Cleveland BrownsOur read
Written Sep 8, from his facts through last season
The games are the whole case. We expect 3 appearances all season, with 9 as the realistic best once you account for his history: 12 games in 2025, 9 in 2024 with a concussion ending things from week 13 on. When he did play last year he scored above the position's weekly median in 4 of 12 weeks and cleared 15 points once. There is no version of this where he holds a roster spot through a bye in week 11.
The landing spot does him no favors either. He moved from CLE to NO, the target room is crowded enough to cost him 0.9 a game by our math, and the books posted a 5.5 win total on his new team, which costs him another 0.8. The trend was already moving the wrong way: 8.71 points a game in 2024 fell to 5.0 last year, and his snap share slid from 70% early in the season to 48% by week 18. Both coordinators in 2026 are new, so even the role he had is not safe.
Drafters take him around pick 316, which sounds like nothing, and it still is not cheap enough. His tier runs out 0.7 points behind him, so you gain nothing by grabbing him over the next guy. I would need a training camp headline and a clear path to targets before I spent any pick here. Pass and use the slot on a receiver with a real path to games played.