Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Two things decide this case and neither is his talent. The first is the room he sits in: receivers in his spot lose 0.9 points a game on average when the target picture looks like this, and KC's picture looks exactly like this, with Rice and Worthy locked in ahead of him and Kelce drawing a fifth of the targets in 2025. The second is what he has actually done with his chances. Four games this season, 2.7 points a game, one week over 8.6 and two straight weeks with nothing. Even the touchdown on his line is one catch that happened to land in the end zone, not a sign the role is growing.
Before the season we gave him 34 points for the full year, with a pace of 3.1 a game across the 11 games we expected him to play. He is running just under that pace, and that is the generous read, because the pace assumed a path to snaps that the depth chart keeps cutting off. He is listed fourth among KC receivers behind Rice, Worthy and Thornton, and in 2025 he played just 19.8% of the snaps with a 1.4% target share. Nothing in the first five weeks of 2026 suggests that gap has closed. Andy Reid keeps calling the plays and keeps not calling them for Royals.
So this is a hold only in the most literal sense, meaning he is on your roster and costs nothing to park. He is not startable in any week right now. If Rice or Worthy misses time, that is the only trigger worth watching, and even then Thornton is ahead of him in line. Until a headline forces the issue, he sits.