Our read
Written Oct 19, from his facts through last season
The season is five weeks old and Patrick has one line on it: week 5 of 2026, 4.6 points, 3 targets, 2 catches. He sat out weeks 1 through 4 of 2026, and at 33 in his tenth year there is no reason to think a long runway is coming. Our preseason number, 42 points over 13 expected games, never asked much of him to begin with, and one week of usage does not move it.
The role behind the numbers is a role the Jets have never given him much of. He was fifth among NYJ receivers on the latest depth chart, behind Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, Omar Cooper Jr. and Isaiah Williams, and last season Wilson and Mason Taylor combined for 52% of the targets. Patrick's own target share in 2025 was 4.7%, 151st among 239 qualifying receivers. What kept him on rosters was the red zone: 37.5% of his touches came there, eighth among 223, with 9 red-zone touches. That is a specialist's profile, and it is a fragile one.
The downside is real and printed. His 34.8% touchdown-points share has cost players in his spot about 2 points a game the next season, net of the factors we counted, and the crowded room another 0.9. Our 42 points already sit in a 25-to-59 middle range, so he is not even being asked to beat much. With the bye in week 13 of 2026 and no injury designation since before week 5, we would only keep him if a roster spot is otherwise idle, and we would cut him the moment a live weekly option appears.