Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
Four games in 2026 have produced 8.2 points total, a zero in week 1 of 2026 and no week above 3.3, plus weeks 2 and 3 of 2026 missed entirely. That is not a slow start, that is a player with nothing to show, and at 24.5 years old in his fourth season the development clock is not waiting on him.
The role never grew. Last season he ran a route on 37.3% of Denver's snaps, WR133 among qualifying receivers, and pulled in a 9.8% target share, WR98. Sutton and Franklin took 39% of the targets between them, and the average drop for receivers in his spot when the room stays this crowded is 0.9 points a game lost year over year. His yards per target also fell from 10.5 in 2024 to 7.8 in 2025, so even the efficiency that made him interesting is gone. Payton is back and calls the plays himself, which means the staff that buried him at WR4 is the same one deciding his touches now. He scored above the position's weekly median in just 6 of 15 games in 2025, and his average depth of target of 9.4 yards ranked WR142, so the few touches he got rarely went anywhere.
We had him at 54 points for the season, a 3.9-point pace over the 14 games we expected, and even that was generous. He is on pace to finish near the low tail, where injuries pull seasons down, and Denver's bye in week 10 of 2026 is still ahead. There is no week to wait for here. Let him go and pick up a receiver with a clearer route to targets.