Our read
Written Oct 18, from his facts through last season
Six points a game better than last year, that is the headline, 6.8 through five weeks of 2026 against the 3.3 he averaged across 2025. But look at the shape. The two good weeks, week 2 of 2026 at 10.8 and week 4 of 2026 at 15.3, sit next to three drops, 1.7 in week 1 of 2026, 3.1 in week 3 of 2026 and 2.9 in week 5 of 2026. That is two playable weeks and three duds, which is roughly the profile he had last season too, when he beat the position's weekly median 6 times in 15 games and never once cleared 15 points.
The role behind it is thin. He is listed fourth among Jets wideouts behind Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr., and in 2025 Wilson and tight end Mason Taylor took 52% of the targets between them. Williams' own usage sat at a 36.5% snap share and an 8.8% target share, WR108 among qualifying receivers, with a 3.4-yard average depth of target, WR210. One red-zone touch all season. That is a short-yardage slot piece, not a volume receiver, and rooms shaped like his have lost 0.9 points a game from one season to the next on average.
He has played every week this season with no injury designation at any point, and he is giving you more than our preseason pace of 3.8 a game. But our number was 50 points for the season, and the middle range runs 32 to 68. Hold him in deep formats where the spike weeks are useful, and check whether the targets from those two big weeks ever repeat. If they do not by week 8 of 2026, we would let him go.