Trent Sherfield

He played 4 of 17 games last season and none of the misses were injury. Buffalo just didn't dress him, and his snap share slid from 35% in the first month to 17% down the stretch. That's the whole case in one picture: a 30-year-old receiver a new staff already buried before the season ended.

He's 30.5 on opening day, entering his ninth season after going undrafted back in 2018, and the arrow has pointed down for three straight years, from 25.6 points in 2023 to 22.3 in 2024 to this. In those 4 games last season he never once beat the position's weekly median, his best week was 2.5 points in week 5, and his worst was a zero in week 14. He cleared 15 points in 0 of his 4 played weeks.

The 2025 line is 5.1 points, WR193, 3.4% of the targets. The one interesting number is red-zone share at 40%, but that's on two total touches, so it's a rounding quirk, not a role. Our number puts him at 5 points for the season, most outcomes between -1 and 10, and we project only 3 games with a realistic range of 0 to 9. Even the upside end of that range is a free-agent add, not a draft pick.

The crowded Buffalo target room costs him about a point a game in our math, and the depth behind the starters in that offense won't help him. Don't draft him. If a Bills wideout goes down in November, you can pick Sherfield up then and lose nothing for waiting.