Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
4.9 points a game through four weeks is not a slump, it is a player who has barely touched the ball. Five catches on 13 targets, one touchdown, and a missed week 5 of 2026. He has carried no injury designation since before that missed week, so the availability question is answered for now. The usage question is not.
Here is why we are not hitting the panic button on the talent. The volume profile still looks like a number one: an 18.0% target share, a 71.7% snap share, and a 21.1% air-yards share from 2025. Historically, receivers in his spot with profiles like that gain points a game the following season, roughly 1.2 to 1.8 a game on average across those measures. Last season he averaged 10.5 a game and scored over the weekly median in 10 of 12 games, so 2025 was a solid year that drafters treated as a rising one. Our preseason number was 179 points, with 12.8 a game over the 14 games we expected.
The real downside is the room around him. McBride took 27% of ARI's targets in 2025 and Wilson took 20%, and among receivers in his spot a crowded target room has cost 0.9 points a game on average. Playing on a team we expect to lose most weeks drags his numbers down too, about 0.8 a game among receivers in his spot. New coaching, Mike LaFleur and play caller Nathaniel Hackett, cuts both ways. Our call: hold him through the bye week 14 of 2026 if your roster can absorb it, but bench him until week 6 of 2026 shows real volume. If a desperate manager will send you anything useful for him, move him.