Our read
Written Oct 17, from his facts through last season
The surprise is that he is on the field at all. Fifth among IND receivers before the season, no ADP anywhere, and our preseason number sat at 12 points for the whole year. Five weeks in he has 11 catches on 19 targets and 157 yards, good for 5.3 points a game. Week 2 of 2026 and week 4 of 2026 gave him 9.1 and 9.2, and the other three weeks stayed under 6.
The catch is what happens after the catch, or what does not. Zero touchdowns, zero carries, and an average depth of target of 13.1 yards, WR28 among 85 receivers with at least 15 targets, meaning his production leans on contested downfield grabs he cannot bank on weekly. He has not missed a game, which matters, because last season he cleared the position's weekly median in exactly zero of six games and finished with 0.0 points a game. That season was a healthy season too, 11 weeks he simply did not play, so availability was never the issue. Usage was, with a 5.7% snap share and a 0.0% target share.
Nothing points to a bigger share coming. Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Keenan Allen all sit above him, and in 2025 Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman each took 21% of IND's targets. The coaching stays the same too, Shane Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter running it again, so the pecking order is not changing on purpose.
Our number still has him near the bottom of the position, WR182, and the tier under him holds two names before a 0.7-point drop. In a 14-team league with a deep bench, hold him through his week 13 of 2026 bye and see if a score comes. Anywhere shallower, the 5.3 a game is not enough to keep over a streamer.