Our read
Written Sep 8, from his facts through last season
The availability is the case here, and it's ugly. We expect 3 games from him this season, with a realistic range of 0 to 9 once injury risk is in. He missed the last five weeks of 2025 with a chest injury that put him on the report as Out from week 14 on, and 12 of 17 played is not a base you build on. Our number has him at 7 points, WR198, and the middle range runs 0 to 13.
And even the weeks he played weren't much. 6.3 points a game in 2025, above the weekly median in just 5 of 12, with a 7.4% target share and a 34.8% snap share. The one thing he did well was red-zone work: 25.0% of his own touches came there, WR17 among qualifying receivers, and 10 red-zone touches at WR48. But his average depth of target was 1.8 yards, WR217. He's a manufactured-touches receiver whose team isn't manufacturing much for him, and the case sheet docks him for a 32.0% touchdown-points share worth -2 a game, plus a crowded room at -0.9. The books posted Detroit's win total at 10.5, and the sheet carries a 3.5 incoming team win total for him worth -0.8 a game on top of that. His best season in this stretch was 2024, 90.3 points over all 17 games, and that still only landed him WR84.
Drafters take him around pick 355, which feels like a round of respect he hasn't earned back yet. If you want a late flier, there are 2 players left in his tier before the drop. I'd let him go entirely.